Market Valuation Monitor

Buffett Indicator

Market value of US corporate equities divided by nominal GDP. Exponential trend with ±1σ and ±2σ bands.

Latest: 252% · +1.60σ vs trend · Overvalued · as of Nov 5, 2026 (est.)

Composite valuation

Composite since 1962, monthly

Composite (σ)±1σ / ±2σ bands
Month-end readings; last point updates with each trading day

Where every model stands

Expected returns

Expected real S&P 500 return per year, dividends included, implied by today's composite reading. Pick a horizon.

Composite vs return over the next 10 years

Weights and each model's correlation with future returns
How the weights were chosen, and the caveats