Market Valuation Monitor

Price / Earnings (CAPE)

Price over the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings. Exponential trend since 1872 with σ bands.

Latest: 38.9× · +1.41σ vs trend · Overvalued · as of Nov 5, 2026

Composite valuation

Composite since 1962, monthly

Composite (σ)±1σ / ±2σ bands
Month-end readings; last point updates with each trading day

Where every model stands

Expected returns

Expected real S&P 500 return per year, dividends included, implied by today's composite reading. Pick a horizon.

Composite vs return over the next 10 years

Weights and each model's correlation with future returns
How the weights were chosen, and the caveats