Market Valuation Monitor

Interest Rates

How far the real S&P 500 sits from trend after allowing for the 10-year Treasury yield. Zero means priced in line with rates.

Latest: +2.53σ · +2.53σ vs trend · Strongly overvalued · as of Nov 5, 2026

Composite valuation

Composite since 1962, monthly

Composite (σ)±1σ / ±2σ bands
Month-end readings; last point updates with each trading day

Where every model stands

Expected returns

Expected real S&P 500 return per year, dividends included, implied by today's composite reading. Pick a horizon.

Composite vs return over the next 10 years

Weights and each model's correlation with future returns
How the weights were chosen, and the caveats