Market Valuation Monitor

Mean Reversion

Inflation-adjusted S&P 500 on a log scale with its exponential trend since 1871 and σ bands.

Latest: 7,410 · +2.35σ vs trend · Strongly overvalued · as of Nov 5, 2026

Composite valuation

Composite since 1962, monthly

Composite (σ)±1σ / ±2σ bands
Month-end readings; last point updates with each trading day

Where every model stands

Expected returns

Expected real S&P 500 return per year, dividends included, implied by today's composite reading. Pick a horizon.

Composite vs return over the next 10 years

Weights and each model's correlation with future returns
How the weights were chosen, and the caveats