Market Valuation Monitor

Earnings Yield Gap

S&P 500 earnings yield minus the 10-year Treasury yield. A wide gap favours stocks; a thin or negative gap favours bonds.

Latest: -0.88 pts · −1.14σ vs trend · Overvalued · as of Nov 5, 2026

Composite valuation

Composite since 1962, monthly

Composite (σ)±1σ / ±2σ bands
Month-end readings; last point updates with each trading day

Where every model stands

Expected returns

Expected real S&P 500 return per year, dividends included, implied by today's composite reading. Pick a horizon.

Composite vs return over the next 10 years

Weights and each model's correlation with future returns
How the weights were chosen, and the caveats