Market Valuation Monitor

Yield Curve

10-year Treasury yield minus 3-month bill yield, quarterly since 1962. Below zero the curve is inverted.

Latest: +1.08 pts · −0.25σ vs trend · Elevated: curve recently un-inverted · as of Oct 2026

Composite valuation

Composite since 1962, monthly

Composite (σ)±1σ / ±2σ bands
Month-end readings; last point updates with each trading day

Where every model stands

Expected returns

Expected real S&P 500 return per year, dividends included, implied by today's composite reading. Pick a horizon.

Composite vs return over the next 10 years

Weights and each model's correlation with future returns
How the weights were chosen, and the caveats