Moody's Baa corporate bond yield minus the 10-year Treasury, used here in place of junk-bond spreads because it has public history back to 1953. Tight spreads mean investors are comfortable with credit risk.
Latest: +1.46 pts · −0.56σ vs trend · Neutral · as of Oct 2026
Expected real S&P 500 return per year, dividends included, implied by today's composite reading. Pick a horizon.