Market Valuation Monitor

VIX Fear Index

Expected 30-day volatility of the S&P 500 implied by options prices, month-end closes since 1990. High readings mean fear; low readings mean calm.

Latest: 28.2 · +1.19σ vs trend · Pessimistic · as of Nov 5, 2026

Composite valuation

Composite since 1962, monthly

Composite (σ)±1σ / ±2σ bands
Month-end readings; last point updates with each trading day

Where every model stands

Expected returns

Expected real S&P 500 return per year, dividends included, implied by today's composite reading. Pick a horizon.

Composite vs return over the next 10 years

Weights and each model's correlation with future returns
How the weights were chosen, and the caveats