Market Valuation Monitor

Consumer Sentiment

University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment, quarterly since 1978. Read as a contrarian signal.

Latest: 48.0 · −2.51σ vs trend · Very pessimistic · as of Oct 2026

Composite valuation

Composite since 1962, monthly

Composite (σ)±1σ / ±2σ bands
Month-end readings; last point updates with each trading day

Where every model stands

Expected returns

Expected real S&P 500 return per year, dividends included, implied by today's composite reading. Pick a horizon.

Composite vs return over the next 10 years

Weights and each model's correlation with future returns
How the weights were chosen, and the caveats