Market Valuation Monitor

Economic Policy Uncertainty

Baker, Bloom and Davis index of uncertainty about taxes, spending, regulation, trade and monetary policy, built from news coverage. 100 equals the 1985 to 2009 average.

Latest: 157 · +0.69σ vs trend · Neutral · as of Oct 2026

Composite valuation

Composite since 1962, monthly

Composite (σ)±1σ / ±2σ bands
Month-end readings; last point updates with each trading day

Where every model stands

Expected returns

Expected real S&P 500 return per year, dividends included, implied by today's composite reading. Pick a horizon.

Composite vs return over the next 10 years

Weights and each model's correlation with future returns
How the weights were chosen, and the caveats