Market Valuation Monitor

Leading Economic Indicator

OECD composite leading indicator for the US, a public stand-in for the Conference Board LEI. Below 100 and falling has preceded most recessions.

Latest: 101.0 · +0.73σ vs trend · Normal recession risk · as of Sep 2026

Composite valuation

Composite since 1962, monthly

Composite (σ)±1σ / ±2σ bands
Month-end readings; last point updates with each trading day

Where every model stands

Expected returns

Expected real S&P 500 return per year, dividends included, implied by today's composite reading. Pick a horizon.

Composite vs return over the next 10 years

Weights and each model's correlation with future returns
How the weights were chosen, and the caveats